Crisis Management & Policy Journal

2011-12-13T20:55:00.004+03:30

Crisis Management & Policy Journal

Ali Asghar Kazemi

Author:

Ali Asghar Kazemi

Professor of Law and International Relations

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Profile: English- Persian

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2011-11-12T10:56:00.000+03:30

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* Ali Asghar Kazemi( Profile)

2011-10-10T10:56:00.000+03:30

Ali Asghar Kazemi

Profile- English, Persian

____________________

Rear admiral ret. Iranian Navy. Professor of International Law and Politics, International Relations and Environmental Law.
Former professor at the National Defense University, Tehran -Iran.
Former Dean of the Graduate School of Law and Political Science, Islamic Azad Unversity ( Science and Research Branch ) Tehran-Iran.

Was Legal Advisor to the the Commander in Chief of the Iranian Navy and Iranian Foreign Ministry and Member of IranianDelegation to the UN Third Law of the Sea Conference (UNCLOS III), and UN Preparatory Commission for the Law of the Sea Tribunal.

Has been involved in Iran-Iraq peace talks, and was a member of the Cease-fire Committee and the Legal Committee in charge of War Damage Assessment.

He was Legal Advisor and Member of Iranian Delegation to the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) for the Airbus incident (Montreal, Canada 1988).

He has participated in the Workshop on Compensation for Oil Pollution Damage, organized by the Marine Emergency Mutual Aid Center (MEMAC), an organ of the Regional Organization for the Protection of the Marine Environment (ROPME), in Bahrain, 1994.

He has written extensively on various legal, political, strategic and environmental aspects of the Persian Gulf. He is a winner of the 'Book of the Year Prize', Islamic Republic of Iran for his book titled :International Relations in Theory and Practice (1994).

He is also the winner of the first prize for research oriented to Iran-Iraq War for his book titled : Legal Dimensions of the Prospects for Peace Between Iran and Iraq,( 1999).

Medal of Knowledge for scholarly works before the revolution in 1974.

Dr. Kazemi is a graduate of The French Ecole du Commissariat de la Marine Nationale. Holds M.S. in Management Science from the United States Naval Post-Graduate School, Monterey, California(1971). He also holds M.A., M.A.L.D., and Ph.D. from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, Medford,Massachusetts.(1976-1979).

Professor Kazemi has been Legal Counsel representing the Islamic Republic of Iran's claim to the United Nations Compensation Commission (UNCC) for environmental damages caused by Iraqi aggression against Kuwait in 1991.The case is now under consideration by the expert panels of the UNCC in Geneva-Switzerland.

The Following is a List of Books in Persian

By : Ali-Asghar Kazemi

1. Modern Diplomacy in an age of Revolution in International Relations ,Tehran: Institute for Political and International Studies(IPIS), 1985. Bibliograhy,Index.

2. International Crises Management, Tehran : Institute for Political and International Studies (IPIS) , 1986. Bib.,Index.

3. The Role of Power in Society and International Relations , Tehran : Ghomes Publisher, 1988 . Bib., Index.

4. Legal Dimensions of Iran's Sovereinty in the Persian Gulf. Tehran: Institute for Political and International Studies(IPIS), 1988, 1991, 1993.Bib.,Index.

5. Integration Theory in International Relations , Tehran: Ghomes Publisher, 1988. Bibliography, Index.

6. International Relations in Theory and Practice, Tehran: Ghomes Publisher, 1993, 1995,1998.Bibliography ,Index. ( Winner of the Book of the Year Prize, 1994)

7. The Crises of Modernity and Political Culture in Contemporary Iran, Tehran : Ghomes Publisher, 1996. Bibliography, Index.
( See Powerpoint short presentation of this book)

8. Ethics and Politics: Political Thoughts in Praxis , Tehran: Ghomes Publisher, 1996. Bibliography , Index.

9. Method and Insight in Politics, ( A Philosophical , Scientific and Methodological Approach) , Tehran: Institute for Political and International Studies
(IPIS), 1995. Bib.,Index.

10. Politimetrics: Quantitative Methods in Politics and International Relations, Tehran: IPIS. 1995. Bib. ,Index.

11. Legal Dimensions of the Prospects for Peace between Iran and Iraq, Tehran, Islamic Cultural Propagation Publishing Co. 1998. (First Prize Winner of the 8th Anniversary of the Iran-Iraq War. 2000) . Bib., Index.

12. Linkage politics and International Relations, Tehran, Ghomes Publishing Co., 1991, Bib., Index.

13. The Crisis Of Modern Society , Moral and Cultural Decline of Modernity, Tehran : Islamcpo Publishing Co. 1999. Bib., Index.

14. Public Policy and Political Management, Tehran : Islamcpo Publishing Co. 2000 .Bibliography , Index.
15. The Seven Pillars of Politics , Tehran: Islamcpo Publishing Co. 2000. Bib., Index.

16. Globalization of Culture and Politics, A Critical and EpistemologicalAnalysis. Tehran : Ghoomes Publishing Co. 2001. pp.335 + Bib. + Index.

17. The End of Politics and the Last Myth : Critical Order in the Post-Political 21st Century. Tehran : Ghoomes Publishing Co. 2001.

List of Selected Articles in Persian
The Following is a List of more recent Articles in Persian, published in Iranian Journals

1- "The United Nations Organization and the New World Order,"in : Iranian Journal of Strategic and Defense Studies , National Defense University, Tehran, 1999.
2- "Idealism and Realism in Foreign Policy," in Iranian Journal of Foreign Policy,No4(11),1998 3- "Coceptualization about Culture and Civilization," in Political and Economic Journal ( Ettela 'at) , No.141-142, 2000.Please refer to the "File"
4- "The Distorted Knowledge: Reflection on the 20th Century Political Thought," in Political and Economic Journal ( Ettela'at) No.133-134, 1998.
5-" Method and Insight in Political Theory," Political and Economic Journal ( Ettela'at) No. 121-122, 1998.
7- "A Journey to Tajikestan," Central Asia and the Caucasus Review, No. 16. 1996 , The Foreign Ministry of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
8- " A Critical Analysis of Political Methodology," Political and Economic Journal (Ettela'at) , No.113-114. 1996.
9-" Theory of Surplus Value in Cultural Exchange Among Nations," Political and Economic Journal (Ettela'at) No.99-100. 1995.
10- " The United Nations Organizations at the Threshold of the 21st Century," Iranian Journal of Foreign Policy. No.1( 14), 2000.
11- " Civil Consciouseness and Civil Society," Collected Papers of the Seminar on Civil Society, Ministrry of Culture ,Tehran, Iran. 1997.
12- " The End of Politics and the Last Myth : Critical Order in the World of 21st Century" Political and Economic Journal ( Ettela'at), No.161-162. Winter ,2001.
13- " Ethical Foundations of Republican State," Collected Papers of the Seminar on Republic.., Ministry of Culture , Thran, Iran. 1998.
14-" Theory of Cultural Exchange and the Dialogue Between Civilizations," Collected Papers of the Seminar of The Dialogue of Civilizations, Minstry of Culture , Tehran , Iran.1999.
.15-"The Post-Political Condition".. in Political and Economic Journal ( Ettela'at), No. 163-164. Spring , 2001. . See File in Persian. . . . . . .

... . . . . . . . . .
Monographs and Articles in English

1-" Environmental Damage Assessment and Loss Valuation : Criteria and Techniques". 1998 . Prepared for the Environmental Claim of Iran Presented to the United Nations Compensation Commission UNCC. 1999. To see the new edition of the text click here to Download the File No.1.

2- "Legal Basis of Iraq's International Responsibility for Compensation, with Respect to Damage Caused to the Environment During its Aggression Against and Occupation of Kuwait.1990.-1991. Environmental Claim....1999. To see the text click here to download the File No.2.
3-"Environmental Setting of Iran Before and After the Persian Gulf War." Environmental Claim... 1999.New edition, Spring , 2001. To see the new edition of theText click here to download the File No.3.

4-"Aggression Related Damage to Iran's Environment and Natural Resources: The Case of
Iraq-Kuwait War of 1990-1991," Environmental Claim......1997. New Edition Spring 2001.. To see the Text click here todownload the File No.4.

5-Religion and Politics: In Search of Compatibility and Compromise - With Special Reference to Islam and Iran . ( Monograph ) 1986

6-" Peace Through Deception : The Iran-Iraq Correspodence," in Farhang Rajaee, Iranian Perspectives on the Iran-Iraq War.. University Press of Florida, 1997. ISBN 0-8130-1476-X.
http://www.upf.com/Spring1997/rajaee.html

7-"Development and the Issue of Transit: The Case of Land-locked States of Central Asia
and Caucasia " Iranian Journal of Foreign Policy, !994

8- Iran's Maritime Strategy inthe Persian Gulf, Monograph ,1978.

9- Toward a Regional Sea Concept in a New Maritime Environment: Problems, Pospects and Implications for International Relations. Ph.D. Dissertation, The Fletcher School of law and Diplomacy, Medford , Massachussetts,1978.http://www.library.tufts.edu/ginn/los.htm

10-" The Issue of Neutrality in Contemporary International Armed Conflicts" .( Monograph-1987)
. . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . .Monographs in Persian

1- The Law of War and Neutrality at Sea , Tehran, 1972, Revised in1982, pp. 350

2- The Sea in International Relations, Tehran, 1973, Revised in 1983, pp. 400.

3- War and International Trade at Sea., Tehran , 1973. Revised in 1982. pp. 360 .

4- The Law of Environment, Tehran, 1985.

5- Collected Papers and Short Articles [on Strategy, Persian Gulf War and International Relations ] (1979-1987), Three Volumes.

6- Collected Literary Works ( 1962-1976) Three Volumes.

7- International Law of the Sea, Collected Reports of the United Nations Third Law of the
Sea Conference, Ministery of Foreign Affairs ,Tehran , Iran.1974-1983.

Current Academic Function

Former Dean of the The Graduate School of Law and Political Science, Research and Science Campus of the Islamic Azad University, March 2003- September 2005. Currently professor of internationmal Law and International Relations.

Books

Currently I have two books under publication by Ghoomes Publishing Co. in Tehran .The first is Globalization of Culture and politics . . . . . and the second is the most controversial work I have ever done , that is : The End of Politics and the Last Myth : Critical Order in the Post -Political 21st Century . Both books cover issues and problems of our time, viewed from a critical and epistemological perspective. I hope the first one will come out of print before the beginning of the next academic year in September 2001. The second book shall eventually come out not later than next December.
Currently , I am working on a new book related to an important subject of Public International Law. The writing of the main body of the book is already finished. I am in the process
of checking the content and citations. I hope to get it published during the next Iranian year.

Articles
I have published two articles recently , both dealing with the much
disputed theory of " The End of Politics . . . " In fact, they have been taken
from the aforementioned book : The End of Politics. . . Another article in the same series will be published very soon by the same Journal i.e. Political and Economic Ettela'at in Tehran -Iran. For more recent papers in english see this site Documents

Courses
Next fall I will be teaching the following courses at
Ph.D. Level :
- Methodology in Political Science
- The Law of War and Neutrality
- Crisis Mangement
- Political Institutuions and Public Policy
Seminars
I have presented a paper in a Seminar organized by the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, School of International Relations on the occasion of the Centennial of Diplomatic Training in Iran. The paper is titled : " Diplomacy, Ethics and National Interests."
On March 4th.2003 I have delivered a speech on the subject " Strategic Ambiguity in
Confronting with Crisis of Iraq,"inThe 13th International Conference on the Persian Gulf :
"The Persian Gulf in the Light of Global Changes & Regional Developments."
I have prepared a paper on "The Legality of U.S. Armed Interventions and Prospects for Peace and Democracy in the Middle East," which was presented to the Regional Security Conference this coming August 2003 in Athens ,Greece.(Text)
A second short paper was presented to Persian Gulf Security Group during the same conference in Athens: "The Future of the Persian Gulf Security in the Light of Recent U.S. Armed
Intervention in Iraq" (Text)
Miscellaneous
It was revealed very recently through the United Nations media network that a total amount of $ 17 million was allocated to the Governmental bodies of the Islamic Republic of Iran ( Including the Ministry of Jihad . . . ) , as a partial and peripheral amount claimed by this
latter for the purpose of undertaking a number of monitoring research
projects for the evaluation of damage caused to maritime and terrestrial
environment of Iran during and after the Iraqi aggression against Kuwait
in 1990-1991. For a detail account of the case , please refer to the appropriate files, in this Site.
It is worthwhile to note that nothing in this respect has been so far
brought to the attention of interested parties through official channels of the
Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs , who is in charge of pursuing the case
through the United Nations Compensation Commission ( UNCC ) in Geneva,
Switzerland.

posted by Ali Asghar kazemi at 11:51 PM

<< Home

· Iran’s Quest for Regional Hegemony

· A Letter to the "Great Satan"

· Euphorie Nucléaire de l'Iran

· Iran's Nuclear Euphoria...

· Iran's Mixed Signals to the West

· Iran: The Moment of Truth

· The Shadow of Terror over Iraq

· The Dilemma of Iran's Foreign Policy

· Iran's Nuclear Gamble: Boldness vs. Prudence

The Weird Child of Democracy

Systemic Crisis in Governance

2011-06-26T09:00:00.000+04:30

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Systemic Crisis in Governance

Ali Asghar Kazemi

June 2011

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A system is a set of interacting or interdependent elements and components forming an integrated whole. These elements continually influence one another in a direct or indirect manner in order to maintain their activity, stability and survivability (existence), for the purpose of achieving the projected goals of the system.

In order to remain stable, a system must consume a certain amount of energy which is called entropy of the system. Entropy is associated with the amount of order, disorder, and/or chaos in a system. The efficiency of a system relates to the ratio of its input to output. When this ratio is too low or negative, the system is said to be self-defeating.

Systems can be “open” with continuous interaction with their environment, or “closed” without such relations. Closed systems have a tendency to self-deteriorate because they have no means to receive feedbacks from the environment in order to correct their path, structure or behavior.

Political systems have the same characteristics and follow the same set of laws and pattern of behavior. Isolated systems cannot reproduce their values and principles and in the long run tend to go into seclusion from the main international environment. The costs of such isolation are usually too high to afford. Many countries in the past have willfully gone through this experience and have finally decided to enter in the mainstream of global interaction. Cases of China and Japan in the past centuries are good examples.

In the case of Iran, isolation has been imposed on the Islamic regime because of its defying conduct with respect to great powers on many issues including the nuclear project. Indeed, the political system governing in Iran is no exception of the general rule that in the long run isolation will cause serious damages to the nation as a whole. The problem is where the blame should be put for this aggravating situation?

A partially closed political system with a rigid ideological structure in constant phobia of being threatened by the environment, the political system in Iran has been consuming all its moral and material energy to cope with its alleged internal and external enemies during the past three decades.

From the first elected president of the Islamic Republic, Banisadr, to the present incumbent Ahmadinejad, almost all important office-holders in Iran have been one way or another accused of deviating from path of Islam and Imam, during or after leaving the office. The list is too long, but two important figures Moussavi (former Prime Minister) and Karrubi, former Speaker of the Parliament, are now among the opposition groups under house arrest. Former Presidents Rafsanjani and Khatami are also in the same black list and are being harassed here and there for their political views and positions. At present time many high ranking former officials, professors, lawyers and journalists are in jail for various reasons.

One is really baffled why so many important personalities, in the Islamic regime’s standard, have turned their back to the regime? Is there anything wrong with the “structure” of the system, or the problem lies on the attitude and performance of the political “agents?” In political terms, the quandary can be limited to an “agency-structure” dilemma.

The debate concerning the primacy of either structure or agency with regard to human behavior is a central ontological issue in sociology, political science, and the other social sciences. In this context, "agency" refers to the capacity of individuals to act independently and to make their own free choices.[1] "Structure", by contrast, refers to the recurrent patterned arrangements which seem to influence or limit the choices and opportunities that individuals possess.[2] The structure versus agency debate may therefore be understood simply as the issue of democratization versus dictatorship and socialization against autonomy. [3]

In the case of present Iran, it seems that both structure and agency are in permanent interaction to limit the influence and impact of each other. That is, structure, under rigorous and rigid ideological tenets, inhibits the sphere of choices and actions of the agency and reciprocally, the agency must put into action all its power and capacity to evade from the structural impediments.

This process indeed leaves no more strength for the agent to perform his duties and obligation vis-à-vis the people and the nation as a whole. In other words, the entropy of the system is so much high that it should consume all its effort to merely survive in a fragile situation and in a hostile environment.

This methodological reasoning can be verified in the daily business of governmental agencies at various levels and proven in their decisions and actions in domestic and international affairs.

The Islamic regime has been spending very much to bribe great powers such as Russia and China to attract their support on the nuclear issue. But, so far this effort has not produced satisfactory results. Indeed, political support of entities such as Syria, Hamas and Hezbollah in the Middle East, and a number of South American states on the Iranian payroll cannot produce any substantial result in a quasi hostile international community composed of more than 200 sovereign states.

In domestic affairs, many lucrative projects in off-shore oil and gas, roads and dams construction, telecommunication, heavy industry and the likes have been handed over to the Revolutionary Guards’ high ranking officers with a view to acquire their backing. However, it is not quite sure whether in time of crisis and emergency they will respond to the expectation of those who count on their support.

Political system in Iran suffers from a structural malaise that inhibits its agents from making rational -and not forcibly ideological- decisions and acting accordingly. It is therefore in constant discord with its human elements and components making the system vulnerable to the hostile political environment in domestic and foreign affairs. Due to this lack of coherence, the system has to consume all its energy and actual capacity to cope with problems thus created on its way. This process unavoidably pushes the system to a self-defeating dead-end that may compromise its very survival and stability.

This topic needs to be elaborated in future comments. /

[1] Barker, Chris. 2005. Cultural Studies: Theory and Practice. London: Sage. p448

[2] Ibid

[3] Contemporary sociology has generally aimed toward a reconciliation of structure and agency as concepts. Anthony Giddens's developed "Structuration Theory" in such works as The Constitution of Society (1984). He presents a developed attempt to move beyond the dualism of structure and agency and argues for the "duality of structure" - where social structure is both the medium and the outcome of social action. For Giddens, an agents' common interaction with structure, as a system of norms, is described as "structuration". The term "reflexivity" is used to refer to the ability of an agent to consciously alter his or her place in the social structure; thus globalization and the emergence of the 'post-traditional' society might be said to allow for "greater social reflexivity". Social and political sciences are therefore important because social knowledge, as self-knowledge, is potentially emancipator. Wikipedia

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* Ali Asghar Kazemi is Professor of Law and International Relations in Tehran- Iran. Students, researchers, academic institutions, media or any party interested in using all or parts ‎of this article are welcomed to do so with the condition of giving full attribution to the author, Crisis Management & Policy Journal as well as ‎Strategic Discourse. ©All Copy Rights Reserved.‎

Witchcraft Controversy in Iran's Politics

2011-05-14T17:19:00.001+04:30

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Politics of Witchcraft and Power Struggle in Iran

A. A. Kazemi

May 12, 2011

________________________

باش تا صبح دولت ات بد مد کاین هنوز از نتایج سحر است

Wait till the majestic glow of the morning light

This is yet the results of the early dawn bright

Introduction

It took more than six long years for the Islamic regime to realize that the man, who was led to occupy the office of the “president” in Iran, was in fact an empty magic box, making too much noise while connected with a dubious entourage of a witchcraft circle. Indeed, this looks not much bizarre for a pompous figure who has led the nation to the brink of another war with his controversial claims and behavior. Perhaps he is relying on the magic power of his allies for the management of the world,. The danger lies on his consistent pretension of being a true Muslim believer having unusual connection with the Almighty “Allah” and his apostles namely the hidden 12^th Imam of the Shiites.

Just very recently a number of Iranian President’s advisers were arrested and jailed for practicing witchcraft. They have been charged with sorcery in an attempt to influence and challenge the power of the supreme Leader in favor of their chief mentor. This has been construed as part of power struggle before the upcoming parliamentary elections in Iran’s political arena.

How far the practice of witchcraft during the past several years (i.e. during Mr. Ahmadinejad tenure in office) has influenced government’s decisions decision making process? What is the extent of damages caused to the nation as a whole and the Islamic regime in particular as a result of this astonishing practice? What is the fate of the incumbent president after the revelation of the witchcraft scandal?

This short paper shall attempt to shed some light on the subject and evaluate the objectives and consequences of witchcraft practice by the president’s entourage and his reliance upon supernatural phenomenon for the attainment of his long-range political goals......

Read More in pdf

* Ali Asghar Kazemi is Professor of Law and International Relations in Tehran- Iran. Students, researchers, academic institutions, media or any party interested in using all or parts ‎of this article are welcomed to do so with the condition of giving full attribution to the author, Crisis Management & Policy Journal as well as ‎Strategic Discourse. ©All Copy Rights Reserved.‎

Metaphysics of Violence and Terror

2011-04-26T19:39:00.001+04:30

‎

‎

[First Draft]

Metaphysics of Violence and Terror

Ali Asghar Kazemi[1]

April 2011

__________________________

Introduction

Just very recently, amidst the fateful crisis in Libya, the embattled Libyan dictator Qaddafi warned the NATO forces that soon he will mobilize an army of invisible “Jinns”[2] to confront the infidel intruders to a Muslim land. It is not known what the reaction of NATO commanders in the field was, but eventually Qaddafi was quite serious about his metaphysical assertion when he ordered his forces to slaughter opposition groups.

Throughout the history of mankind, political rulers joint with spiritual leaders have used and abused the supernatural beliefs and metaphysical forces in order to establish their power and solidify their grip over the minds and bodies of people. Religious wars of the past, inquisition trials, torture, prison and other cruel punishments are considered as clear manifestations of the influence of the outer-world in the daily life of people.

Terror and violence are terms that have existed all along with the development human society from primitive times to the present. In prehistoric era to the advent of men’s primeval civilization, violence was part of daily life in the “state of nature” which was a product of pure human instinct for survival. Gradually, before reason became as the ground foundation for “civil society”, religion and metaphysics dominated the realm of knowledge of the world and its various sophisticated phenomenon. Thenceforth, violence became inseparable parts of religious rituals that still today are being observed as a sacred duty in some religions.[3]

What are the principal causes of these acts of terror and violence that seem to be inseparable part of human societies? The main argument in this paper is that violence, terror and atrocities such as September 11 events, suicide attacks and other mass killings, executions and the likes, should be explained and understood only within the purview of “metaphysical paradigm” and not necessarily through conventional rational approaches. ...Read More

See pdf file

[1] Ali Asghar Kazemi is Former Dean and currently Professor of Law and ‎International Relations at the ‎‎Faculty of Law and Political Science - Post-Graduate ‎Program, IAU, Science and Research ‎Branch. ‎‎Tehran- Iran.‎ Dr. Kazemi is a graduate of the French Naval Academy and The United States Naval Post-‎Graduate School, Monterrey Calif. He holds PhD from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, ‎Medford, Mass. USA.‎

[2] In the Islamic tradition, Jinn is a spirit that can take on various human and animal forms and makes mischievous use of its supernatural powers. Jinns are mentioned in the Quran like a zillion times. They even have a surah to themselves. (Suratul Jinn). They use to reveal to the Prophet Muhammad in times he needed help against his enemies. Sometimes, they even carry him to their world to teach whole clan of them.

[3] Scarifying various animals (instead of human beings in the past) during religious rituals and manifestations can be indeed considered a form of systematic violence still practiced in certain societies.

Pondering on Iran’s Economic Reform

2011-04-15T11:02:00.000+04:30

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“Is this Me this Glorious Peacock?”

(Pondering on Iran’s Economic Reform)

A. A. Kazemi

_____________

این منم طاووس علیین شده زیر بالم این جهان رنگین شده؟

When Mr. Ahmadinejad’s old car was auctioned for more than two million dollars and later his jacket was sold for over $50’000 in an strange public sale for charitable purposes, some critiques observed that he would better sell his socks and underwear for the sake of saving his economic reform plan!

Indeed, Ahmadinejad is a clever but naïve man who lives with his raw illusions and ideals rooted in his limited world view. Nonetheless, he is a peculiar phenomenon who happens to occupy a high position that entails the fate of a nation in the long history of this land of marvel called Iran! His recurrent eccentric and pompous claims to take in hand the management of the world stems from an inner drive for self-importance that should be excavated through his past. His way of running the business of the country is a reflection of this malaise.

As I said elsewhere in my previous comments, “the implementation of the economic reform plans needs a number of prerequisites without which chances for its failure are very high.” It is necessary and important to reiterate here what I summarized about those preconditions in the in that article:

“ A favorable domestic environment paving the way for people bearing eventual economic hardship created due to inflation and price adjustments after the abolition of subsidies on energy and consumers goods;
People confidence on the capacity, honesty and competence of the government. This factor has been under serious strains, especially after the alleged fraud and unconvinced presidential elections of 2009;
A favorable international environment which facilitates foreign investments and transfer of technology. This dimension is seriously damaged due to the nuclear crisis which has deprived Iran from all transactions with the rest of the world through the adoption of four UN Security Council resolutions devising economic sanctions against Iran;
A realistic understanding of the world’s rules of the game and a rational decision about friends and foes with a view to promote national interests in all circumstances and making Iran less vulnerable to outside threats;
Transparency and truthfulness on all aspects regarding economic reform and sincere cooperation with the parliament with respect to the gradual implementation of the plan.”

While the initial steps of the reform plan package is underway, recent bills for gas and electricity shocked people dreadfully and protests against government are spreading around the country. People are only wondering how they could survive the galloping inflation that is being injected to the society.

On the other side, officials are announcing that monetary reform is underway and soon we will be witnessing four zeros being removed from national currency. This means another terrible psychological shock to the besieged people. In fact, it seems that somebody in the government (perhaps the glorious peacock) is prescribing “shock-therapy” for curing economic malaise in the country.

As I mentioned earlier, the accomplishment of an unprecedented national plan for structural changes encompass strategic, social, cultural, political, psychological and human factors as well. Handling the above requisites at present Iran seems rather difficult. Since, in this circumstance, people seem not prepared to sacrifice their short and long-run interests in situations that require devotion, dedication and support for those who have no true sympathy for them and their causes.

Rising gold price in recent days is a good indication of people’s fear of diminishing their purchasing power on a daily basis, which makes them to rush to the gold market to exchange their assets to this precious metal and other robust foreign currencies.

People have learned by experience during the past years that they should not rely much on government officials whose promises, actions and intentions are not always genuine. This stems from lack of transparency and accountability which in turn gives way to rumors and negative information propagated by opposition groups inside and outside the country.

As an odd remedy to this negative development, just recently police forces have staged a coordinated raid to private ‎residences in various quarters in Tehran and other cities for destroying satellite dishes and ‎confiscating related equipment on the rooftops. This is pursuant to a rather old law, almost ‎dormant for several years, forbidding such utensils for households’ uses. This ‎means that people should only watch and listen to official broadcast which are merely ‎tasked to publicizing the outstanding achievements of the sanctified government. ‎

Meanwhile, according to the World Bank predictions, Iran will experience a zero ‎percent economic growth rate in 2011; this actually means a negative growth for the ‎current year if population increase is subtracted from the equation.‎

In order to move toward achieving the reform plan in its all aspects, the “charming peacock” should open his wide eyes on the realities of domestic affairs as well as of what is going on in the tumultuous region around our country. The government as a whole has to convince people of its good intention and its capacity to cope with adverse impact of economic reform on people’s daily life.

Attracting people’s confidence and avoiding tension with neighbors and the rest of the world is a must for the achievement of economic reform plan that is key factor for peace and stability, development of the country and well-being of the people./

Tension is the last thing we need in the Persian Gulf

2011-04-13T18:12:00.000+04:30

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Iran Should Avoid Tension in the Persian Gulf

Ali Asghar Kazemi

April 13, 2011

_____________________________

Tension is the last thing we need in the Persian Gulf. While the whole Middle East and Northern Africa is engulfed in a critical crisis situation and almost all states are alarmed for their very survival, the Islamic regime in Iran should avoid entering into verbal disputes with its neighbors that could be escalated to a real conflict.

Recent exchanges of acrimonious statements between mid-level officials in Iran, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait and others are ominous signs of rising hostilities in the region. Perhaps Iranians do not really mean to aggravate the situation by their harsh responses to unfriendly words coming from the Persian Gulf states. But, these latter, fearing Iran’s intentions seem to take these threats seriously. Such misapprehension could lead to an unwanted conflict which eventually will usher the doors for non-regional powers to enter in the quarrel.

There is no doubt that for many reasons Western powers will take such occurrence as a good opportunity to straighten their perennial grudge with the Islamic regime once for all. Indeed, as I mentioned elsewhere , the case of Libyan military intervention under the UN Security Council Resolution is a bad sign for this eventuality.

Whether we like it or not, in the eyes of many states in the world, Iran has become a source of threat to the peace and stability in the region and the international community has a duty to contain its ambitions at all costs. Thus far, the Security Council has issued four important resolutions under Chapter VII of the UN Charter devising harsh sanctions against Iran’s nuclear endeavor without much success. Iranian defiance is like a contemptible slap to the face of the United Nations which could have grave consequences.

The heightening of tension between Iran and the Persian Gulf states, if not contained vigilantly, could give a good and legitimate pretext to foreign powers, especially the United States, to seize the opportunity to bring a defiant state to its knees. This could lead to the destruction of important strategic and economic assets of Iran with huge human and material losses.

We hope that high decision makers in Iran avoid escalating the tensions with our neighbors and refrain intermingling in the internal affairs of other states which could create grave consequences at this particular juncture for the fate of the Islamic regime and the future of Iranian people. /

The Wider Implications of Military Intervention in Libya

2011-04-06T09:58:00.002+04:30

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The Wider Implications of Military Intervention in Libya

Ali Asghar Kazemi

‎April 6, 2011‎

‎ ________________________ ‎

‎ While fighting is still continuing in Libya and the ill-fated Qaddafi is trapped ‎in his own insane decisions to remain in power, the outcome of the military ‎intervention is more or less clear; total destruction and defeat. Indeed, this is the ‎end of an era in Libya and the oppressive rule of a madman who for more than ‎forty long years ridiculed the whole world by his contemptible behavior. ‎Unfortunately, the international community closed eyes on the follies of this ‎lunatic man sitting on a huge reserve of oil in North Africa. Neither the United ‎Nations nor other humanitarian institutions took seriously all the misdeed of ‎this dictator during this long period. ‎

Perhaps, among all the self-claimed rulers in the Arab world, Qaddafi was the most notorious. Since, while completely losing touch with realities, he claimed to be the most open popular leader who should be followed as a model and praised in the whole world. From time to time, , he took conciliatory actions such as paying huge compensation for the Lockerbie plane crash affair and the dismantling of the nuclear project venture, out of extreme necessity for survival. But, he never gave up his ill-wishes in the back of his insane mind.

With the outbreak of crisis in Tunisia, Qaddafi observed that Ben Ali should remain in power despite mass protests against him. Eventually, he never dreamed of having a destiny worst than his counterpart in Tunisia. At least Ben Ali had the guts of giving up the power and leaving the country before huge human and material losses. What Qaddafi has left so far is a devastated country and thousands of victims. At least the next generation in Libya should pay the costs of this sufferance.

Our main purpose here was not to delve into the fate of Libya but rather the wider ramifications of military intervention in the region with explicit UN permission. There is no doubt that the bold and relatively quick action of the UN Security Council in the Libyan case will set an important legal and political precedent on the records of the United Nations for deciding to form a military coalition against a brutal dictator who wants to remain in power against the will of the people through force. Similar rulers in the region should take this example seriously and do in a way not to fall in the same trap as the Libyan leader did.

We shall continue on this topic in our future comments. /

UN Security Council has the Duty to Liberate Libya

2011-02-25T16:55:00.000+03:30

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UN Security Council has the Duty to Liberate Libya

Ali Asghar Kazemi

February 25, 2011

_____________________

The Libyan crisis has come to a critical point that without an immediate all-out intervention from the international community the situation will end up to a human tragedy and disaster. The Libyan dictator has so far refused to submit to the demands of the people and appeals of the international community. He has used every means at its disposal to annihilate the protesters around the country. There is indeed a real case of genocide going on in Libya and something has to be done immediately to halt the horrible situation in oppressed country.

The legitimate organ of the United Nations to intervene in such situation is indeed the Security Council that under Article 39 of Chapter VII of the UN Charter is duty bound to recognize that in fact the crisis has endangered international peace and order and decides for appropriate actions to terminate the horrible condition. In such case, the members of the Council shall decide on some temporary measures and the enactment of relevant provisions of the Charter including Article 42 allowing military intervention.

Unfortunately, the Security Council has proven to be very slow or inactive in similar cases ‎in the past and this has left many defenseless people under dictatorial oppressions around the world. ‎There is no doubt that, from a legal point, states’ sovereignty is still dominant determinant in international law and the world community so far lacks the appropriate quick and efficient mechanism to face similar crisis situations.

This lacuna should be remedied in due time. But, for the moment an urgent action is needed by the Arab League along with the United Nations. The Security Council shall convene promptly and adopt a Resolution on the matter. This resolution has all the chances to be supported by all permanent and non-permanent members of the Security Council. The modalities of the military intervention under UN flag should be decided according to relevant articles of Chapter VII of the UN Charter.

At this critical point of time, there is no more room for hesitation, deliberations, and political expediency and the whole international community should facilitate proper execution of the Security Council Resolution. Those who are still perplex on the immediate action to liberate Libya shall stay away from the case and do not hamper this urgent humanitarian mission, otherwise, they will encourage more bloodshed and genocide in this horrible crisis.

We shall continue watching the Libyan situation and will write further comments on the case if necessary. /

The Birth of a New Middle East

2011-02-24T11:07:00.000+03:30

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The Birth of a New Middle East

Ali Asghar Kazemi

February 24, 2011

________________________

The year 2011 will be remembered as an important landmark in contemporary history of mankind and in particular the Middle East and the Arab world. Indeed, we are currently witnessing history in the making and parts of it are still in the process of achievement. Just like in childbirth, most often the process is accompanied by intense and sometimes prolonged pain.

The throbbing level depends on factors such as physical, psychological and pathological conditions of the person (society) involved. This means that people with prior experience of revolts and revolutions may more easily run through the change and accept its consequences. While, in societies with traditional authoritarian rules, low level of development, education, natural resources, may endure more pain in the process. In some cases, the society involved may fall into a “post-traumatic stress disorder”[1] which can be interpreted as civil wars, and other symptoms associated with internal crises etc.

What happened in North Africa and the Middle East during the past two months, may symbolize the kinds of change that are initiated through an unanticipated marriage of people’s and new international media, which together gives birth to self-consciousness and revolt against rulers and dictators no longer attuned with the necessities of our times.[2]

Tunisia which first set example in the series of revolution and swiftly overthrown the incumbent regime, had a relatively modest experience of democracy but in the long run became under an authoritarian corrupt rule that was no longer accountable to the people. Egyptians had a bit more difficulty in bringing down Mubarak who resisted to the last point but finally he was forced to step down. Unlike Ben Ali who quickly left the country, Mubarak preferred to stay in the country. Eventually, he knew that if he quits Egypt, people will demand his trial, as they did in the case of Ben Ali.

In other places in the Middle East, situation has varied depending on the factors cited above. In Yemen and Bahrain, while the governments have given some concessions to protestors in order to curb at least momentarily the uprising, in Libya the so-called “Mad Man” (Gaddafi) has so far resisted giving up the power and has even used war plane to bombard and deter the unprotected people.

This means that the suffering associated with the birth of the new child is too high to bear, unless a quick surgical operation, eventually with the help of foreign intervention, is taken place. In such case, possibly the whole world will be affected by the event.

The New Middle East will undoubtedly be different from the past. But eventually, the apprehension of some pessimists who fear that it will fall in the hands of Islamic fundamentalists is unfounded. However, democratic peace-loving states should not take this for granted and ought to do everything possible to avoid that opportunist lefts or rights take advantage of the situation.

If things are left at the will and initiative of the enlightened people of the region, without prejudice and grudge, the birth of the “New Middle East” will be a happy event that would pave the way for democracy, prosperity, peace and harmony in the world. /

[1] I have borrowed this term from regular childbirth literature.

[2] See my article on “ The Power of People Plus Media” Middle East Academic Forum

Dynamic Crisis Decision Making

2011-01-26T20:00:00.002+03:30

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(First draft please do not quote)

Dynamic Crisis Decision Making

Ali Asghar Kazemi

January 2011

______________________

Introduction

From a methodological perspective, political science borrows diverse methods and approaches applied in social science research. Amongst these positivism, behavioral, structuralism, realism, institutionalism, rational choice theory, pluralism, interpretivism and critical theory are most familiar for students of the field. Post-modern movement and thinking have influenced these approaches considerably and have changed both the form and substance of political inquiries. Constructivism, hermeneutics, discourse analysis etc are the outgrowth of this wave.

Demand for relevance and functionality has also introduced many new qualitative and quantitative aspects and tools in this field. Statistical analyses, model building, simulation and case studies are among the very interesting and useful methods that have come to the assistance of political analysts and researchers.

The main purpose of this paper is to focus on new approaches and to show that whatever method researchers in political science and international relations choose for their inquiries they should be oriented towards dynamic rather than static conditions. In other words, in order to enhance the reliability of researches and applicability of their findings and outcome, we have to examine situations, conditions and alternative decisions in their process of changing occurrence and formation.

What do we mean by a static versus dynamic research? What are the attributes and benefits of this approach in political inquiries and decision making process?

Dynamic Research Technique

According to August Comte[1], social dynamics studies the laws of succession, ‎while social statics seeks those of coexistence. In other words, the former furnishes ‎the theory of progress, the latter of order. All ‎considerations of structure and function are static. That is to say, quantitative change is static. In dynamic phenomena the change is ‎qualitative. Thus, social static focuses on how to maintain order in society and social dynamic focuses on how society changes over time.

In an article in American Journal of Sociology the distinction between the notions ‎‎"static" and "dynamic" is considered “logical, ‎methodological and pedagogical.” [2]‎ ‎ In ‎other words, they are primarily and ‎chiefly subjective rather than objective. “They are ‎categories imposed ‎upon the object by the mind which attempts to represent the ‎object. They are aspects of the object, not ‎independently existing objects. They are ‎machinery for handling in ‎details the things to be understood in their totality.”‎ [3]‎ ‎

For our purpose, a static research is alike a still picture showing the apparent characteristic of a situation or incident from a certain angle, in a determined time and a defined context. A dynamic study or inquiry tries to examine a case in the process of its development through time and space as a motion picture.

For example, when we refer to a geo-strategic region such as the Persian Gulf, one may list a number of factors, variables, parameters and determinants that portray and explain the attributes of an important area for global security and order. But, only when these factors and variables are put into motion we can realize the true meaning of security. In other words, since security means differently to each actor, we ought to know about its conduct in different conditions and circumstances and find out the threshold of its rationality, actions and reactions in crises or emergency situations.

This requires dynamic examination of various eventualities and conditions that my occur in a vital geostrategic region and the relevant decision alternatives for each scenario. These scenarios range from the “best optimistic” to the “worst case” each of which needs a separate analysis in a dynamic situation.

We may refer to general system theory[4] in order to explain how observable events or phenomenon can be studied in a constant dynamic interaction as parts of a larger system which by definition has a continuous tendency for stability. This can be applied to all branches of science, including natural, social and political studies.

As an aspect of systems theory, system dynamics[5] is a method for understanding the dynamic behavior of complex systems. The basis of the method is the recognition that the structure of any system is often just as important in determining its behavior as the individual components themselves. Examples are “chaos” theory and “social dynamics.” In some cases the behavior of the whole cannot be explained in terms of the behavior of the parts. This explains the integration of tools, like language, as a more sparing process in the human application of easiest path adaptability through interconnected systems.[6]

Dynamic Programming and Game Theory

In the management field and operational research we use dynamic programming by mathematical techniques when we face a series of interrelated problems that require “sequential decisions”[7] and solutions. “Dynamic programming is an approach involving the optimization of multistage decision processes.” [8] The optimality principle here means that a given problem or situation is divided into stages of “sub-problems” which have to be solved sequentially and then aggregated to a final optimal policy after a thorough examination and cost-benefit analysis.

In international relations, when there are a number of actors with different interests and strategies competing or conflicting with other, we use “game theory” in order to reach an acceptable solution to all. For this purpose, we try to optimize each actor’s gain and loss in putting into motion their various courses of action by solving a numerical problem set-up in a matrix.[9]

In game theory, while there is always a conflict of interests between participant actors, rationality in decision options is the foundation of the game. In other words, if there is to be a solution, the outcome of game should be derived from a rational choice of each player who tries to maximize his gains and minimize his losses. In this approach, depending on the types of the games (zero-sum or non-zero-sum) the optimum strategy is the one that satisfies all participants. Otherwise, the game would either go to stalemate or has to be continued until the time it has a satisfactory solution.[10]

This process can apply to strategic regions with multiple actors seeking contradictory objectives. It allows to each independent player to divide a major security problem into a number of manageable sub-problems and arrange them according to their strategic values and find suitable solutions for each.

Dynamic Crisis Decision

There are other studies in the field of crisis decisions that distinguish between dynamic and static approaches. One such study is published in American Political Science Review.[11] This article argues that heuristic-based cognitive models [or dynamic approach based on trial and error rather than set of rules] on the one hand, and holistic rational theories [based on static set of rules], on the other, have always created debates regarding ‎decision making or choice which is at the crux of social science research.

According to the study, some scholars argue that decision makers use ‎maximizing holistic strategies, based upon a particular predetermined static rule. Others claim that for volatile crisis situation with high perceived risks and threats, non-holistic (or dynamic) approach should be employed.‎ Since, in the process of handling a crisis situation there is always a probability that the course of events changes direction and magnitude. Thus, a static predetermined set of rules may prove irrelevant to the new condition.

Relying on past studies that typically examine "static" situations, may end up to erroneous outcomes; especially when “policy alternatives and ‎decision criteria are simultaneously introduced into the decision matrix.”[12] However, foreign policy crises ‎are very often characterized by a different decision structure: an evolving choice set in which ‎policy options emerge during the process.‎ In other words, a dynamic approach to the decision leads to the cross-examination of each alternative in the course of the development of a crisis situation.

Dynamic Political Ideology

Some analysts have tried to study the functional and practical aspects of ideology and culture in the field of political science. They distinguished between dynamic and static character of these two major components in political realm. In their static conditions, political ideologies and political cultures are simply two variables to be considered in political inquiries. But, when they are put into motion they can produce significant results for the society. Since, they ‎shape the way a nation thinks and, accordingly, acts. It is generally believed that “Political Ideology is dynamic and ‎political culture is static.”[13]

Political ideology relates to a certain set of ideals or principles dealing with a nation, or even a group, ‎that explains how society should work.[14] A political ideology largely concerns itself with how to ‎allocate power and to what ends it should be used. It is often seen as the background of a ‎political party and their policy. On the other hand, political culture, in simple terms, is what most citizens expect ‎from their government.[15]

Political culture is usually determined by the government, which is why it is ‎considered static; however, political ideology is dynamic because it is usually determined by the ‎people.‎[16] In some instances however, the reverse of this proposition may prove true. This may be the case where the state ideology runs against the will of the people and their traditional culture. In this example political ideology promoted by the government becomes static or even retroactive and culture plays a dynamic role in shaping a nation identity and political configuration.

The functional benefit of this distinction lies in the overall influence of these two determinants on state behavior in political realm and people consciousness with respect to their national identity. Most social and political conflicts between people and the ruling system stem from this dichotomy.

Conclusion

Political science is essentially the study of man in isolation and in collectivity. Governments and institutions are just parts of human activities that facilitate orderly interactions in the social environment. To inquire into and understand man’s behavior in their political milieu we have multiple methods, tools and approaches. No unique technique or approach can logically claim to perform this whole task.[17]

A pioneer of modern political science, describing this difficulty, once said "We are limited by the impossibility of experiment. Politics is an observational, not an experimental science."[18] Thus, political scientists have historically focused on political elites, institutions, and individual or group and observed their behavior in order to identify patterns, draw generalizations in order to build theories and models for better explaining the political environment. However, after many centuries of political inquiries we are still far from being able to declare success in our endeavor. There are many reasons to support this argument. Permanent quarrels, conflicts, crises and wars among peoples and nations are good indications for this contention.

In spite of all the difficulties and complexities involved in this field, contemporary political science has developed to a great extent by adopting a variety of methods and theoretical approaches for better explaining and understanding politics. Our purpose in this short paper was to shed light on the dynamic aspect of political inquiry and methodology which in practice provides better ground for devising a policy decision rather than an abstract idea.[19]/

Notes

* Ali Asghar Kazemi is professor of Law and International Relations at IAU, Science and Research Branch. Faculty of Law and Political Science. Tehran- Iran.

[1] French thinker and philosopher 1798- 1857 founder of sociology and positivism.

[2] Albion W. Small. "Static and Dynamic Sociology." American Journal of Sociology, 1 ‎‎(1895): 195-209.‎This article is a critical review of Lester F. Ward American sociologist 1841-1913.

[3] Ibid

[4] Bertalanffy, Ludwig Von. Perspectives on General System Theory Edited by Edgar Taschdjian. George Braziller, New York. (1974).

[5] System Dynamics was founded in the late 1950s by Jay W. Forrester of the MIT Sloan School of Management.

[6] This passage is taken from : “Systems theory ,” Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

[7] See e.g. C R Kothari, An Introduction to Operational Research, New Delhi, Wikas Publishing House Pvt Ltd. 1983. pp. 116-120. See also: Richard E. Bellman, Dynamic Programming, p.83

[8] Ibid

[9] See Ali Asghar Kazemi, Politimetrics: Quantitative Methods in Politics and International Relations, Tehran: IPIS. 1995. In Persian ‎

[10] I have deliberately simplified the subject of “game theory” here in order to make my point with respect to the dynamic approach to research technique. For further reading see relevant materials on the subject.

[11] Mintz, Alex; Geva, Nehemia; Redd, Steven B.; Carnes, “ The effect of dynamic and static choice sets on political decision making: an analysis ‎using the decision board platform.‎ American Political Science Review ,‎ September 1, 1997‎.

‎

[12] Idem

[13] Political Ideology and Political Culture Uploaded by Nivizzle (54) on May 16, 2007.

This material is published under license from the publisher through the Gale Group, Farmington ‎Hills, Michigan. ‎ ‎

[14] Ibid

[15] Idem

[16] In some places where the political ideology is dominant and determined by the government, it could become static; and conversely, political culture becomes dynamic.

[17] See e.g. Ali Asghar Kazemi, Method and Insight in Politics, (A Philosophical, Scientific and Methodological Approach) , Tehran: Institute for Political and International Studies(IPIS), 1995. In Persian ‎

See also: Ali Asghar Kazemi, The Seven Pillars of Politics, Tehran: Islamcpo Publishing Co. 2000. In Persian

[18] Lowell, A. Lawrence. 1910. "The Physiology of Politics." American Political Science Review 4: 1-15. Former American Political Science Association President.‎

[19] In the course of writing this paper I have consulted many useful political science handbooks and internet sources, including Wikipedia, for which I have not necessarily given reference. The clever reader can understand the reasons for this deliberate omission that could otherwise need many pages.

Crisis Proliferation in the Middle East

2011-01-20T22:10:00.001+03:30

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Crisis Proliferation in the Middle East
Comparative Crisis Analysis (3)

Ali Asghar Kazemi

January 20, 2011

__________________________

Social and political crises are by nature very contagious and if not rationally managed or contained can rapidly proliferate through an extended region geared up for reform and revolution.

The crisis in Tunisia that escalated to its threshold, turned into a full-scaled revolution leaving behind a people in furor, a regime in disarray and a nation in chaos. Remnants of the old regime tried in vain to re-establish a new government (The National Unity Government) but people continue to stay in the streets raising their demands to the points unbearable by the interim government. They want the old party (Democratic Constitutional Rally) in power be dissolved and their corrupt members arrested and tried. Interestingly, this party was once itself a liberating movement around which the Tunisians gathered to oust another old and allegedly medically unfit dictator ( Habib Bourguiba). It was then called a “constitutional coup d’état.”

The Arab League has convened an extraordinary session in Egypt in order to discuss the matter. Heads of the league and some Arab states warned against the imminent crisis situation in other member states having trouble with unemployment, inflation and people discontent. This all means that the crisis is perceived critical and need for its immediate management is highly felt.

It was reported that during the past several days a number of frustrated people have set themselves on fire in Algeria and Egypt. Street riots have started in South Yemen and Jordan in support of Tunisian revolution. Most ordinary and educated people in the Arab world are in a state of alarm and continually watching development of the crisis trends. The expectation that something is to be done has made the political environment in these countries ready to ignite. Radical changes seem to be on the corner and getting momentum by minutes.

In Tunisia a group of Muslim zealous took to the city square prayed Allah for the success of ‎their revolution; an ominous sign that many people and countries around the ‎region do not appreciate. Some feared that the revolution be hijacked by the ‎Islamist fundamentalists and some expressed hope for a democratic free society. ‎Apparently, the disarray is quite alarming and police force is not capable to ‎establish order. Most people are asking the Army to intervene.

This prompted the‎ Iranian official media, which had kept silent initially, to take position by applauding the “Islamic revolution” of Tunisia and warned foreign countries not to intervene in the internal affairs of this Muslim state. Indeed, such designate may not please many Arab states and people who fear the rise of fundamentalism in the region.

According to analyst in the Arab world, “Tunisia had mixed fortunes under Ben ‎Ali. On the brighter side, Ben Ali did well in infrastructural development in his ‎country.” ‎ But the other side of the story is what lies behind the ongoing ‎protests that caused the downfall of Tunisian president and his regime. “Intolerance, oppression of political dissent, massive levels of ‎corruption by the political elites, huge inequalities between the masses and those ‎close to the centers of power, and an incredible level of arrogance of the latter in ‎their treatment of the former,” can be cited as factors in the darker side. ‎

Usually most dictators tend to overlook the darker side of their rule, on the account that they expect people to be grateful of the goods they made for the country. The Shah of Iran had the same feeling when he left the country. He kept asking “why the people did that to me, I did so much good for them!” Unfortunately he missed the point that economic growth alone without social participation and political development is not the remedy for progress.

Students of political science are well aware of the academic debate concerning the relation between development and democracy. These two magic words are in fact corollary to each others. That is to say that in final account one without the other is doomed to failure. The lesson is crystal clear from experiences around the world. Lack of democracy and genuine respect for men’s fundamental rights are vital impediments for faire and just distribution of wealth and opportunity that pave the way for economic development.

Indeed, there are schools of thoughts that argue ‎” democracy or ‘political good governance,’ is not necessary for economic prosperity.” They give examples of a number of “today’s established democracies that began experiencing economic ‎prosperity before becoming democratic.‎”

Perhaps China is the example in this regard. Yet, we have ample evidences to the contrary. May be the case of pre-revolution Iran is a good case. Of course, democracy alone is not sufficient factor for economic progress and prosperity. But, as long as true democracy necessarily leads to the rule of law and respect for people rights to question the ruling power, this will ensure the accountability of political system.

Authoritarian regimes do not like to be accountable to people fearing that this might diminish their authority to rule the nation the way the wish. This will indeed leads to the situations in which lack of mutual respect and confidence leaves no choice other than mass uprising and revolution, prescribed by all “social contract” political philosophers and practitioners.

The current crisis situation is susceptible to proliferate throughout the Middle East and North Africa. It is causing concern to Western powers that are caught in a difficult dilemma: How to deal with the ever increasing threat of emerging Islamic fundamentalism to replace ousted corrupt regimes. Just alike the cold war period during which corrupt, undemocratic political systems were supported by them fearing their fall to the communist camp.

Almost all regimes that risk to be fallen to people’s unrest are Muslims with a more or less strong faction of dormant zealous fundamentalists, who might surface like a torrent with popular slogans and platforms that please frustrated peoples to take over the whole region. Most North African countries, particularly Egypt, Libya and, to some extent, ‎Algeria and Morocco, have many common characteristics similar to Tunisia.

Whether revolution is an appropriate answer to political oppression, injustice, corruption, inflation, unemployment and so forth, the answer depends on whose eyes you look to the problem. Those who have no other means than taking to the streets and shouting against the ruling system and facing arrest, jail, torture and finally death, might justify their action. But, they should know that revolution is no cure to their malaises. Since, revolution can only destroy the status quo in short-run; but, in the long-run, it has nothing to offer to the frustrated people.

Revolutions have always propensity to obliterate and even refuse to look back to evaluate their performances and failures. In the end they become prisoners of their own myths and slogans and do not hesitate to punish as traitors those who turn back to them. In their final lifespan they become awfully harsh and ruthless. They even devour their own child.

There is no doubt that Tunisia will set a new model and precedent for analogous Arab countries in the region. However, with no leadership in the movement to follow a clear strategy, it is susceptible to go in the wrong direction. Meanwhile people should be much careful where they are going in the days and weeks to come. /

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Comparative Crisis Analysis (2)

2011-01-17T21:07:00.002+03:30

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Comparative Crisis Analysis (2)

Tunisia Crisis Turned into a Revolution!

Ali Asghar Kazemi

January 17, 2011

___________________________

As we promised in our first comment about the crisis in Tunisia on 15 January, 2011, here is a follow-up of the questions we addressed and left them to be clarified by the development of future events.

As expected, the crisis that was provoked by an isolated unfortunate event regarding an unemployed graduate who set himself on fire and died a few days later, turned into a full-scale revolution in Tunisia. This ignited people protests that finally caused the collapse of the government and resignation of the president.

Upon his downfall, the Tunisian President left for the destination of France, where he was refused entry. He then headed towards Saudi-Arabia, just like the Shah of Iran who was not accepted by his longtime allies and was finally received by Egypt.

The demise of Ben Ali did not end people protests and cities fell into widespread chaos and plunder. Prisoners were set free and for the first time in 23 years state television broadcasted “call for prayers,” which means a lot for the region. This could mean that power vacuum at the top of Tunisian political system could be handed over to an Islamic fundamentalist government. Indeed, this is not good news for the West and other Arab countries.

In fact, Tunisia that recognizes Islam as the state religion could very possibly turn to an Islamic government run by fundamentalists. This in turn could have a domino effect not only in the bordering Algeria but many other countries in North Africa and beyond these two "buffer states” farther to the Middle East and the Persian Gulf. Already, people in many countries in the region have expressed support for Tunisians and applauded their courage and vigor. High officials in the Arab states have reacted very cautiously but they seem to be shocked by the speed and the probable consequences of the events in Tunisia.

Curiously, Iranian state broadcastings inside the country had a rather poor coverage of Tunisian uprising and did not bother much to make political analyses for their audiences. Instead, many foreign radio and TV channels provided substantive and informative comments for enthusiastic people interested in news concerning the Tunisian political developments.

Many political activists in the Arab world believe that "the revolt in Tunisia is a surprise ‎on all levels. It shows nations can topple oppressive regimes. There will be a ripple ‎effect across the Arab region.”‎

Across the region the frustrated people by corruption, unemployment, rising gaps between riches and poor and family connections in the political strata, are watching closely Tunisia. Some long-survived rulers like the Libyan dictator, who has been in power for the past 40 years, are warning against radicalism and extreme emotion towards incumbent leaders that may worsen the situation. He is indeed very much troubled about Tunisian experience and the fate of his rule. The Libyan leader like his peer in Egypt is equally worried about the impact of Tunisian revolution on their longtime dream of handing over the power of state to their heirs.

The economic reform plan which is now considered as a pre-requisite for economic development and efficient allocation of resources, requires suppression of subsidies in vital goods such as bread, sugar and diary etc. Most Arab nations rely on such state subsidies for their primary subsistence. Thus, subsidy cut will necessitate price rise and readjustment which in turn cause people discontent.

Though the Persian Gulf oil producing states may not be categorized in the same vulnerable economic range, yet they lack many other political factors that could instigate people demand for changes in near future. These latter with huge financial assets have been able to afford a rather workable welfare system that could buy off the opposition groups and postpone eventual revolt against the traditional ruling system.

But, countries such as Syria, Jordan and Egypt which lack such financial strength are very much vulnerable and their hard power instruments cannot deter public to rise up against the rulers. Besides that, military and security forces in these countries in most part come from the poor traditional layers of the society and may not remain devoted to their corrupt leaders in case they are ordered to suppress people protests and uprisings.

In the weeks and months ahead we shall be witnessing amazing changes in the Middle East political configuration. Such changes may not necessarily satisfy people’s rising expectations; they may even work against their hope and anticipations.

Iranians are watching very closely and with caution the development in Tunisia and other countries in the Middle East region. They are now quite busy with the ramifications of the new economic reform plan and waiting to see how their life will be affected in the process.

We shall continue on this topic in our future comments. /

Comparative Crisis Analysis

2011-01-15T21:43:00.001+03:30

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Comparative Crisis Analysis: The Case of Iran and Tunisia

Ali Asghar Kazemi

January 15, 2011

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Students of comparative politics should be interested in finding out the reasons behind two different outcomes in two apparently similar socio-political crises in two more or less comparable countries: Iran and Tunisia. In fact, events that led to the downfall of the incumbent Tunisian President in January 14, 2011, was in a way less turbulent than that happened after the much disputed presidential elections in Iran in 2010.

While in both events people as a whole assumed a decisive role in taking their protests to the streets of the capital cities and targeted their slogans directly at the highest officials asking for their resignation, Iran was able to survive the uproar whereas Tunisia succumbed to the demands of protesters.

What are the fundamental differences between the two crises in form and in substance? What exactly happened in Tunisia? Was that a revolution such as that occurred in Iran in 1979 with deep structural changes? Or it was just a temporary social turmoil which will fade out after a reshuffling of the government? What are the long-run consequences of similar crises in the greater Middle East?

Some people suggest that Tunisia was one of the fist victims of Wiki leaks disclosure on the widespread corruption of the Tunisian president’s family and the awful condition of the people engulfed in unemployment, inflation and inequality. In fact, the initial spark of the crisis in Tunisia was set off by Wiki leaks.

Here are the chronologic events that ended into a real crisis situation which caused the toppling of the incumbent regime in Tunisia on January 14, 2011:

· 17 Dec: An unemployed graduateTunisian citizen ( Mohammed Bouazizi ) sets himself on fire in protest at lack of job opportunities in Sidi Bouzid, leading to protests;

· 24 Dec: Another protester (Mohamed Ammari) shot dead in central Tunisia;

· 28 Dec: Protests spread to the capital Tunis, demanding the president Ben Ali to step down;

· 5 Jan: Mohammed Bouazizi died and ignited mass street protests by furious citizens ;

· 8-10 Jan: ‎ ‎A state of emergency was declared after which police fire rounds and tear gas at anti-government ‎protesters. Dozens citizens reported killed in the streets of the capital;

· 12 Jan: Interior minister sacked.

· 13 Jan: President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali promises to step down in 2014 in TV address

· 14 Jan: President dissolves government and parliament, declares state of emergency, and then steps down .Tension grips Tunisia's capital after leader flees to Saudi-Arabia.

As we can see from the above sequences, the crisis gradually escalated from an isolated protest in December and reached its climax by the dissolution of the government and parliament and finally the resignation and fleeing of the president on January 14.

Ben Ali’s long tenure to the office (23 years) and his systematic repression of political opposition over the past two ‎decades has created a situation in which no potent alternative could assume state’s responsibility and power in the immediate future. Furthermore, his‎ failure to quell the demonstrations despite a huge security presence on the streets could have a large impact on the region, where similar regimes have ruled for decades.

Elsewhere in the neighboring Algeria too, demonstrations over high food prices have taken place during the past weeks. Other states with similar economic and social conditions, which have to make structural changes to their inefficient economy, seem to be the next candidates for unwanted political changes.

Interestingly, an international TV broadcast (Press TV) related to the Islamic republic, said in an interview on January 15 that” Tunisia crisis, [was] a 'wake-up call' for Arabs.” The answer of the interviewer (Clovis Maksoud) was very clever and to the point:

“Yes, not only a wakeup call but I think it's going to be infectious in ‎several other areas in a manner that might not necessarily lead to bloodshed but a ‎weakening of the authority and when they are vulnerable many of those who ‎authoritarian regimes have excluded the population and in the policy making process .‎”

He furthermore added: “And therefore there will be now a response on the part of many governments to try to ‎accommodate some of the legitimate demands to the extent that they might in the ‎process weaken their own authority and in that respect there might be a more ‎readiness on the part of many Arab governments at this moment seriously ‎accommodating the requirements of human rights, civil societies and sustainable ‎development on all levels in terms of attacking unemployment. Do not forget the Arab ‎world is a rich nation of poor people.‎”

Whereas, one may argue that crises do happen anywhere the criteria mentioned above and ‎does not recognize creeds, ethnicity or national border. Countries lagging behind the ‎forced measures of globalization and democratic standards, as defined by the ‎international environment, are suitable targets for change. ‎

Iran has been able so far to make a safe passage in the initial phase of its economic reform plan. But, given the bitter memories of the post-elections events, it seems that people are not prepared to follow suit the Tunisian experience. Besides that, despite a number of similarities in forms, there are a variety of differences in substance between the two cases that make an intelligent guess about it very difficult.

We shall discuss more on other aspects of the crisis in our future comments./

Crisis of Global Governance and World Order

2011-01-14T16:22:00.000+03:30

Crisis of Global Governance and World Order

Ali Asghar Kazemi

October 25, 2008

_____________________________________________

Governing the sophisticated and diverse affairs of today’s nations has become so much complicated that goes beyond the capacity of any individual leader. This requires collective knowledge, initiative and action directed and managed by good leadership towards the fulfillment of national objectives and interests. Lack of sound management usually reveals during crisis situations, especially when it encompasses global peace and order.

September 11 crisis and its ramifications upon the international order have produced new generation of political leaders around the world which is different from the past. In the United States these changes appear more pronounced to the point of altering the course of history.

As the chances for Barrack Obama to conquer the White House increases, a new typology of leadership is emerging in the fields of political science and international relations. The new generation of world leaders seems to possess common traits and characteristics different from the traditional one. We are not yet quite sure about the direction and substance of these changes, but based on similar occurrences around the world, we may be able to build the main body of tentative new propositions which will eventually supersede the traditional theories of public opinion, governance and political leadership.

Are we experiencing a radical shift in world public opinion about the qualities and characters of political leaders? Are we witnessing fundamental changes in expectations and political taste of people on traits, capacity and orientation of leaders? Are these changes a necessary outcome of confidence crisis in leadership? Are these changes conducive to peace and harmony or we should expect more conflicts and hostilities around the world?

This introductory comment is merely the product an of an off-hand hunch which should be examined more closely by students of social sciences, politics and international relations in order to arrive at a clear and all- encompassing theory about the characteristics of emerging new leadership and governance in the world.

Without plunging deep into the old times and reminding reputes of great leaders who changed the course of history, names of famous political figures of contemporary world history, such as Churchill, de Gaulle, Eisenhower, Adenauer, Gandhi, Tito, and the likes, are still remembered with respect and grandeur. Indeed, they lived at a critical epoch of historical transformation after the Second World War when people still recognized heroes for their achievement and believed that they could save their respective nations from the moral and material catastrophe and devastation of the war.

As we move up towards our present time, we see a flagrant decline in the quality of leaders. In fact, leaders with mediocre capacity, intelligence and sense of accountability are emerging here and there whose performance is damaging the political status of their proper nations and endangering peace and order in the world. Is this the necessary outcome of the so-called “liberal democracy” and power of mass media to manipulating public opinions towards the election of weak leaders? Are new leaders more to the left or right? Are they more democratic or authoritarian? Are they more pragmatic, ethical, more pacifists or the opposite? How could we explain the current economic and financial crisis which has plunged the whole world into such deep trouble? Are we facing a crisis of leadership around the world?

Though we are not yet able to form a convincing argumentation about either of the above propositions, there is no doubt that September 11 and the subsequent events have drastically changed not only our perception, but also the political configuration and quality of leadership in the world. The truth is that we don’t have yet ready answers to these queries and in fact in some cases we have evidences to prove both sides of the dichotomy. For example, in Latin America we are witnessing the emergence of rather young aboriginal and rude leftist leaders whose main trait is feuding with the United States. They are challenging American policies and power to the point that they have become strategic allies of the Islamic regime in Iran. Though they have nothing in common with Iranian hardliners except their hostile attitude toward US, the Islamic regime is investing hard in order to gain partners and influence in the region.

In the United States, President Bush, son of a living ex-president, whose poor performance brought America and the world to the brink of political and economic insolvency, will soon leave the office eventually in favor of a democrat president who promised drastic changes in the American leadership.

How shall we explain such a strange phenomenon that may pave the way for the election of an “African-American” as the leader of the most powerful nation on earth? Is it due to the alteration of people’s political taste or shall we look to other causes for this metamorphosis? How comes that the American Public ended up to prefer a clever black man without much noble background to a war hero whose father and grandfather were among high ranking flag officers of the US Navy?

In Europe the crisis of leadership is felt all over the continent. People are protesting constantly against their leaders. They have little confidence on their government’s capacity to tackle with growing problems originated on the other side of the Atlantic. US mishandling of the post-September 11 crises by means of “hard power” has put NATO’s global mission in serious qualm and member states are not quite sure about the functionality and viability of this remnant of the cold war period. New leaders of not much charm such as France’s Sarkosy, Italy’s Berlusconi, and few others, while in deep trouble at home, are trying to identify themselves with the American political leadership. They may think that this will boost their position within EU and in the world.

East European political leaders are still in transition from the era of iron curtain to be integrated into a greater liberal community whose outcome is not yet clear. In the Middle East we have an array of left to right, from revolutionary hardliners challenging the West, to traditional conservative regimes whose new leaders are liberal minded and pro-West. Radical Muslims who staged the September 11 attacks (Al-Qaeda) are among the archenemy of this latter generation of leaders in traditional societies and earnestly seek to uproot their rules.

In the vast Asian continent, we still have the remnant of the old communist intelligentsia who have transformed to the requisites of the 21^st century. Incumbent Russian leaders, who come from an intelligence background (KGB), have now partly recovered from the shock of the collapse of the old Soviet empire. While Russians are trying to follow policies dictated by their geopolitics, most of the new young republics of the Central Asia and Caucasus are mired by the American hegemony and dance to the tune orchestrated by Washington. They are also in transition and their final fate is yet to be written in future. Georgian recent experience may well be repeated in other territories of the old union.

Besides China whose pragmatic leaders are distancing from the ideological dogma of the past and are now experiencing real miracle in their economy, new political leaders in East Asia are continuing to rely on American capitalism. They already have paid very onerous price for their ties with the West and are now going through further economic hardship due to recent financial crisis in the United States. Opposition leaders will soon capitalize on the matter and embark to take over the political leadership through launching anti-capitalistic slogans which now seem to please public at large.

We had no intention to cover and exhaust all the political leaders of the world in this introductory comment. We only attempted to give exemplary samples on the emerging new generation of leaders, and pose questions rather than to provide answers or justification to the main argument. The issue seems enough worthy for further academic debates and directed researches.

As a preliminary conclusion we may advance the following hypotheses to be tested through more in-depth debates and researches:

· September 11 phenomenon has changed not only world political configuration but also altered people’s perception of leadership;

· Inability of world leaders to take appropriate measures and policies to face the dangers of what is labeled as “international terrorism” has created a crisis of governance and leadership;

· People of advanced societies no longer trust their traditional leaders and are changing political taste and orientation towards unconventional faces who promise changes;

· It is not quite sure that they will get the expected satisfaction in their choices, nonetheless they prefer to test their chances;

· Only the future can reveal the rationale and benefits of this new trend and experience for peace and order in the world.

‎* Ali Asghar Kazemi is Professor of Law and International Relations in Tehran- Iran. Students, researchers, academic institutions, media or any party interested in using all or parts ‎of this article are welcomed to do so with the condition of giving full attribution to the author and ‎Strategic Discourse. ©All Copy Rights Reserved.‎

Iran’s Nuclear Issue in 2011

2011-01-14T10:28:00.000+03:30

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Iran’s Nuclear Issue in 2011

Best Optimistic to Worst Case Scenarios

Ali Asghar Kazemi

December 31, 2010

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I don’t pretend to be a futurist, but, based on realistic assessment of the past events, one can have a good hunch of eventual trends and expectations of the future. The year 2010 crossed in a way the threshold of peaceful diplomatic interaction that the West could afford to deal with the overall issue of Iran. A portion of those efforts is scheduled for the beginning of the New Year 2011 as to indicate perhaps the final call for compromise. Depending on the position of Iranian decision-makers, one of the following scenarios may take place on which basis the West’s eventual plan for action will be formulated:

Given its internal problems, particularly in the field of domestic economy which is seriously affected by UN sanctions and those inflicted by the West and its allies, Iran will take an unprecedented bold step to go along with the UN Security Council demand in agreeing to suspend(at least temporarily) its nuclear enrichment activities for the sake of confidence-building;
Iran will try to put forward a third solution through initiating an international consortium with the participation of the West and third parties acceptable to it, for handling and supervising the enrichment business as a mean of confidence-building;
Iran will continue its evasive tactics through vague and non-relevant statements without squarely and frankly repudiating negotiations for eventual compromise on the nuclear issue;
Iran will categorically reject all demands and appeals for halting its nuclear activities and warn the West and its allies against intervening in its internal affairs and threaten to use forces directly or by its proxies in case of opening hostilities in the region and the Persian Gulf.

Among the above alternatives, we start from the best optimistic to the worst case scenarios. Indeed the first scenario is most ideal for the West and international community as a whole as well as for Iran; which actually needs a favorable domestic and international environment for safe and secure implementation of its newly initiated economic reform plan. This alternative, if accepted, will give Iran a break to handle its domestic affairs which is quite susceptible to threaten the very survival of the Islamic regime. The West can promote this option by offering Iran an acceptable incentive package which would be hard to reject.

Though the first scenario is quite appealing and could eventually benefit all parties involved, alternatives two and three may be considered as suitable complementary for Iran; in the sense that both fit in the same category of negotiating fashion of Iranian diplomats. However, alternative two has been already tested and has set a bad precedent for Iran’s good intention in the last round of negotiations in Geneva two years ago. It is not sure that the 5+1 powers will be ready to go along with scenario two, given their previous experience with similar scheme which was aborted by Iran.

The most probable alternative would be the third one which by experience seems to satisfy Iran’s vagueness and ambivalent positions so far. In such case, the 5+1 powers will be tempted to go for a fifth draft resolution to be adopted by the Security Council. Such resolution will surely attempt to tighten the rope around Iran’s neck by adopting harsher sanctions to the extent allowed by Article 41 of Chapter VII of the UN Charter.

Iran’s response to this last UN action will determine whether the threshold of tolerance would be crossed paving the path for activating Article 42 of the UN Charter, which calls for military operations against the defying party to a dispute.

With regards to the fourth alternative, despite hostile rhetoric of Iran’s hard-line conservatives against the West, the worst case scenario appears a far remote option; since the overall nation seems not prepared to engage in another war and active hostilities in the near future. This means that the West should not really take much serious hostile messages coming out of Iran; they are in most part for domestic consumptions.

The overall assessment is that the year 2011 will be decisive for Iran and its relations with the West. So far the West has been able to reach a quasi conclusive consensus on Iran’s nuclear activities, separating Russia and China from the Islamic government. This has already put a heavy burden on Iran’s diplomacy, which invested so much to keep these two powers in its side.

The Islamic Republic will have a hard time and a very busy year ahead in struggling concurrently in two fronts (domestic and foreign) to keep the ship of the state afloat. High politics decision-makers should make a realistic assessment of the present situation and formulate the strategy that best insures Iran’s national interests while assuring the rest of the world of its good intentions with respect to the nuclear activities./

‎* Ali Asghar Kazemi is professor of Law and -International Relations in Tehran-Iran.
Students, researchers, academic institutions, media or any party interested in using all or parts ‎of this article are welcomed to do so with the condition of giving full attribution to the author and ‎Strategic Discourse. ©All Copy Rights Reserved.‎

Iran: Roots of the Post-Elections Crisis

2011-01-13T13:36:00.000+03:30

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Iran: Roots of the Post-Elections Crisis

Ali Asghar Kazemi

October 2009
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“A new world society is gradually emerging.It is growing quietly, imperceptibly in the minds and hearts of men. The tumult and the excitement, the anger and the violence, the perplexity of spirit and the ambiguities of expressing are the pangs of he birth of something new. We of this generation are called upon to work for this new order with all the strength and capacity for suffering we possess.

S. Radhakrishnan[1]

______________

Introduction

Thirty years after the advent of the revolution, that brought an Islamic regime in Iran, religious leaders are still looking for ways and means to transform the society into a rigid bloc of faithful and zealous citizens who fully submit to the official principles and precepts put forward by them. While during the past three decades every effort has been made to disseminate religious teachings at all levels of public education, from the kindergartens to the universities, seemingly the result has been frustrating.

The post-presidential elections public turmoil, that brought the country to the brink of a real social revolution, was another vivid indication that the whole scheme of “Islamization” of the society was an ineffective and futile social investment. Since, the effort merely counter-produced and youngsters who were brought up with Islamic rigorous teachings after the revolution simply did not show interest to them and much less to obey them blindfolded. Indeed, this phenomenon should not surprise anybody who has a little familiarity with the very rudimentary concepts of the philosophy of education and social sciences.

Misconception about Social Sciences

With a view to cure this incongruity, the Islamic system recently came to the conclusion that the problem emanate from the dominance of the Western “social sciences” books and materials taught by Western educated and/or oriented teachers and professors in the higher education structure. To that end, a new round of purge has been initiated at different levels of educational institutions and expert committees are being set up once again to remedy the problem once for all!

How far this conclusion about Western “social science” is logical? Can the Islamic regime succeed in its new effort to eradicate the roots of restlessness among students and educated people against the system by simply changing the contents of textbooks? Where should we look for proper answer to the problem?

Problem of Religion and Politics[2]

From the beginning of human history, man has been guided by two strands inextricably woven in his very nature, the rational and the spiritual. These forces have influenced human destiny in varied patterns and in different periods when one or the other may have been more prominent.[3] Religion has been the great force for the disciplining of man’s nature, though it has also worked against his fate by denying the domain of reason.[4]

Religion has to do with human mind, ideas, the belief system, values, attitudes and behavior. Politics as an interdisciplinary branch of social sciences, deals essentially with the pursuit of power through “the art of influencing, manipulating, or controlling [groups] so as to advance the purposes of some against the opposition of others”[5] The struggle over conflicting ideas, values and interests directed by religious beliefs have existed throughout history. Great religions such as Buddhism, Judaism, Christianity and last but not least Islam have at one time or other claimed to have answers for all problems of the society. But, history bears good witness that almost in all cases, religion married to temporal power, became imbued with a formalism which deprived it of its moral and spiritual values.[6]

Some religions such as Hinduism and Buddhism have sought to base their beliefs on tangible elements and hold that the two sides of human nature, the rational and the spiritual, should work together.[7] Western religions have been long engaged in the struggle to come to term with the spirit of reason.[8] In later periods, scientific developments overshadowed faith in traditional beliefs. The process led to the intellectual questioning of the metaphysical view of the world and the revival of animistic science in the period of Renaissance.

Since the Renaissance two divergent lines of thought have prevailed in the philosophical perspective. One deeply committed to the notion that the real world is external to the observer, and the other, that belonged to cultures which escaped the early impact of Newtonian thinking retained the view that the real world is completely internal to the observer.[9]

Where to put the blame?

When Socrates was executed for religious heresy, it was not merely an act of religious fanaticism, such as later became common, but rather a serious response of society to subversion. The early Christianity was attacked by the Roman government not only out of religious exclusivism in modern sense but because it was seen as revolutionary and subversive, a threat to the organization of society. The Christians incurred the supposed guilt of an unnatural and unpardonable offense. They dissolved the sacred ties of custom and education and violated the religious institution of their realm.[10]

Once it was believed that only religious and metaphysical limitations could restrain rulers and power-holders from committing acts of violence and suppression. This may still prove a valid argument, only if we can make a definite distinction between religious ideology and the actual process of politics. But when the frontiers between the two realms fades away and one identifies its very existence with the other, then, the moral and metaphysical constrains to power-holders become irrelevant. In such circumstances, religion fails to its duty. With the alienation of power-blinded men from moral restraints, aggressive behavior and suicidal tendencies occur.[11]

In today’s world, where hope and peril run side by side, among great and vital issues of our time are those which involved the suppression of the evil which drive societies toward wars, hostilities and terrorism. How then the whirlwind of revolutionary social forces can be directed towards a safe and constructive path?

Considering the fact that constitutional foundation of world order and international law have proven inefficacious for the maintenance of peace and assurance of democratic process, the problems remain to be tackled with in future are the minimum moral and spiritual requirements in order to preserve peace, security and human dignity in a tormented world.

In the absence of a superior authority over and above nation-states, claiming sovereignty and political independence, power with legitimacy is the necessary instrument of governments. Without these latter, political order could neither be established nor maintained and guard society against anarchy. Power without legitimacy spawns tyranny and violence, corrupts the mighty and crushes freedom.[12]

In a general sense, individual quest for power has the effect of leading a ruler to act against the will of the people.[13] But when religion becomes politicized and gets involved in the competition for power, it has the effect of encouraging its followers to act against the accepted norms of civilized nations. As a result, domestic power struggles spill over into the international system. The immediate implication of such behavior is to impose its will and ideology on another state(s).

Religion can help people to establish harmony in their souls, to illuminate human spirit, and to liberate nations from despotism and tyranny. But surely it cannot supplant politics, in the sense it is understood in our contemporary world system, dominated by sovereign nation- states, national interests and competition for power. Religion, says Radhakrishnan, “is the direct apprehension of the Supreme. It is in the attaining of a state of illumination. While the reality is omnipresent, human being is able to apprehend it directly in his own inmost being.”[14] When statesmen attempt to measure -or make semblance to do- political events and social phenomena of the real world by religious standards, they are merely submerged in their illusion.

Future of Religions

Religious belief and faith of any kind have always posed dilemma for humanity. Like a two-edged sword, religion has been hard for men to live without, and almost equally hard to coexist with. Just the same, when man is passionately submerged in his religious obsessions, he is tempted to preach it to others. If they prove deaf to his preaching, he is often tempted to impose it by fire and sword. [15]

Religious wars of the past are now over, but the legacy of intolerance, persecution and slaughtering of man by man on ideological and religious grounds is still with mankind. Religion has become scapegoat for obstipated “old leaders clinging too long to power in a world they no longer understand,”[16] and for power hungry younger generation deeply indoctrinated in myths and delusions. The world no longer represents the long cherished compassionate and fraternal ideals of Islam, Christianity, Judaism, Buddhism, Hinduism, etc.

Encountering realities of this tormented world is a difficult task of the new leaders of our time who are not trained to overcome the lust of power. Religion has the potential ability to free politicians from the evil forces that enslave their spirit. But politics cannot help an obstinate religious to straighten his conduct or to regain his purity. No institutional or legal patterns, no revolutionary theologies, and no chastisement of the other world can make a society to become a safe place to live, unless the people set out to rid of spiritual poverty. In this respect, it is rightly argued that “the quality of our life is the evidence of our religion.” [17] Indeed, religion in this context is not incompatible with politics, neither is it in competition with it in the pursuit of secular power, but it is its mentor.

Religions will lose their redemptive power, if societies are not prepared to accept their human and spiritual principles. People need not to adore saints and their illusions; they have to seek redemption through faith and reason which lead to the path of salvation.

Conclusions

From the dawn of human history to our present time, prophets, philosophers, thinkers, academics and social scientists, disregard of their beliefs and native origins, have helped men to understand their social environment and to overcome the evil of tyranny and despotism in their communities. They should be respected and be given credits for their achievements. Western social and political sciences are not in dissonance with the essence of religions and spiritual needs of human beings. On the contrary, they teach us how to comprehend and deal with evil propensity of political leaders who use religious principles to promote their power and greed despite the will of the people. /

__________

Ali Asghar Kazemi is professor of Law and International Relations in Tehran, Iran. See: www.aakazemi.blogspot.com

* Students, researchers, academic institutions, media or any party interested in using all or parts of this article are welcomed to do so with the condition of giving full attribution to the author and Strategic Discourse. ©All Copy Rights Reserved.

Notes

[1] Religion in a Changing World, (London: George Allen & Unwin, Ltd, 1967) p. 15.

[2] Parts of this article are readapted here from my earlier writings in : Ali Asghar Kazemi, Religion and Politics …, Monograph , Tehran, 1985.

[3]. CF. S. Radhakrishnan, Religion in a Changing World (London: George Allen and Unwin Ltd. 1967), p. 18.

[4]. Ibid. p.9.

[5] Quincy Wright, The Study of International Relations, ( New York: Appleton Century Crofts, 1965), p.130

[6]. CF. Jacques Pirenne, Tides of History, op. cit. p. 407.

[7]. Ibid. p. 34.

[8]. Ibid. p. 35.

[9]. Henry Kissinger, American Foreign Policy (New York: W.W. Norton & Company. Inc. 1974), p.48.

[10]. CF. Edward Gibbon, the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire, I, (New York: Modern Library), p. 448.

[11]. CF. R. Strausz- Hupe and Stefan T. Possony, International Religions (New York, 1954) p. 11. Quoted in Robert L. Pfaltzgraff and James E. Dougherty, Contending Theories of International Relations ( New York : J. b. Lippincott Co. , 1971 ) p. 91..

[12]. Robert Strausz-Huoe, Power and Community (New York: Frederick A. Praeger, 1956), p.3.

[13]. This is for example the case of Iran in the pre-revolution period as well as during the past years when the essence of religion gradually changed in the pursuit of political power.

[14]. Religion in a Changing World, op. cit. p. 102.

[15].CF. Charles Yost, The Insecurity of Nations- International Relations of the Twentieth Century, op. cit., p. 212.

[16]. Idem.

[17]. Ibid. p. 110.

* Ali Asghar Kazemi is Professor of Law and International Relations in Tehran- Iran. Students, researchers, academic institutions, media or any party interested in using all or parts ‎of this article are welcomed to do so with the condition of giving full attribution to the author and ‎Strategic Discourse. ©All Copy Rights Reserved.‎

2011-01-13T10:37:00.001+03:30

The Ideological Impediments of Iran's Foreign Policy:
Collected Papers

Ali Asghar Kazemi
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* Students, researchers, academic institutions, media or any party interested in using all or parts ‎of this article are welcomed to do so with the condition of giving full attribution to the author and ‎Strategic Discourse. ©All Copy Rights Reserved.‎

Political Constraints of Iran’s Economic Reform

2011-01-13T10:34:00.000+03:30

Political Constraints of Iran’s Economic Reform

Ali Asghar Kazemi

December 201o

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Nobody can logically contest the need for a major overhaul and structural change of the Iranian economy which suffers from a number chronic malaises inherited from wartime situation. The end of eight long years Iran-Iraq war was an opportunity to lead Iran’s economy to a rational and normal path that could promote productivity, efficiency and growth. But, fear of social unrest and negative political ramifications impeded successive governments to embark on such a risky plan as to cutting subsidies or at least its faire distribution among needy layers of the society. Thus, during the past two decades, people got habituated to consume cheep energy resources in such a way unparallel in the whole world. (Average energy consumption in Iran is 6.5 times that of the world.‎)

Experts believe that previous pragmatic (Rafsanjani) or reformist (Khatami) governments could initiate such reforms more easily because domestic and international environments were somehow more favorable than today ’s hard-line president Ahmadinejad, who is engulfed with horrendous problems at home and abroad. However, this did not take place merely for the lack of insight and political expediencies. This has caused the nation as a whole tremendous loss because of the unprecedented waste of national resources.

At last, the Islamic government became conscious of the bitter fact that the continuation of this unfortunate trend could endanger the very survival of the regime. Thus, the restructuring of national economy found its way to the agenda of the decision-making apparatus of the system and the parliament voted for an economic reform plan and the executive decided to go for its implementation.

Despite the fact that most people see only one dimension of the scheme for which they feel most affected, i.e. energy, the plan has several aspects each of which is as important as the others. The plan calls for restructuring Iranian economy inter-alia in the following fields:

Subsidy reform plan; ‎
Reform in banking system and currency; ‎
Reform in insurance ; ‎
Reform in customs control & excise; ‎
Reform in taxation and wealth distribution ( V.A.T tax reform); ‎
Increasing productivity – ( Internet and e-commerce in Iran); ‎
Improving distribution of goods and services and the functioning of state organizations and ‎ privatization in Iran.

Without attempting to go into the detail of the above program, which is quite complicated and requires specialized knowledge, the objective here is to contend that the implementation of the economic reform plan needs a number of prerequisites without which chances for its failure are very high. We can summarize those preconditions tentatively as follows:

A favorable domestic environment paving the way for people bearing eventual economic hardship created due to inflation and price adjustments after the abolition of subsidies on energy and consumers goods;
People confidence on the capacity, honesty and competence of the government. This factor has been under serious strains, especially after the alleged fraud and unconvinced presidential elections of 2009;
A favorable international environment which facilitates foreign investments and transfer of technology. This dimension is seriously damaged due to the nuclear crisis which has deprived Iran from all transactions with the rest of the world through the adoption of four UN Security Council resolutions devising economic sanctions against Iran;
A realistic understanding of the world’s rules of the game and a rational decision about friends and foes with a view to promote national interests in all circumstances and making Iran less vulnerable to outside threats;
Transparency and truthfulness on all aspects regarding economic reform and sincere cooperation with the parliament with respect to the gradual implementation of the plan.

Political constraints of the economic reforms in Iran encompass social, cultural, psychological and human factors as well. Handling the above requisites at present Iran seems rather difficult. Since, people have learned by experience during the past years that they should not rely much on government officials whose promises, actions and intentions are not always genuine. This stems from lack of transparency and accountability which in turn gives way to rumors and negative information propagated by opposition groups inside and outside the country. Recurrent revelations about high level civilian and military corruption in various sectors of the society are indeed not helping the accomplishment of an unprecedented national plan for structural changes. Thus, people seem not prepared to sacrifice their short and long-run interests in situations that require devotion, dedication and support for those who have no true sympathy for them and their causes.

In order to gain support for its economic reform, the Islamic government has to convince people of its good intention and its capacity to cope with its adverse impact on people’s daily life. For that purpose it has to set up a parallel plan for confidence-building inside the country and with the rest of the world. Without fulfilling this requisite, the success of this bold and historic national scheme seems difficult to guarantee.

Two weeks after the official start of the initial phase of the economic reform plan, despite the fear of mass protests against ramifications of the scheme, nothing substantial has happened so far. This may mean one of the two things:

- Either people are satisfied with the cash payment they received for subsidy compensation, which is an overly optimistic assessment, given the overall condition of the society;

- Or they are waiting to see how the government will cope with price hike and inflation at least in the short-run, as repeatedly promised by the officials.

This latter hypothesis seems more realistic; since people are more or less skeptical of the success of the plan but they don’t want to be blamed for its failure and they are waiting to see its final fate without actively getting involved in its eventual crumple./

‎* Ali Asghar Kazemi is professor of Law and International Relations in Tehran-Iran.
Students, researchers, academic institutions, media or any party interested in using all or parts ‎of this article are welcomed to do so with the condition of giving full attribution to the author and ‎Strategic Discourse. ©All Copy Rights Reserved.‎

Iran: Preparing for “Soft War”

2011-01-13T10:25:00.000+03:30

‎

Iran: Preparing for “Soft War”

Ali Asghar Kazemi

December 2009

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Changing Conflict Environment

Ever since the breakdown of the Soviet Union, as the most powerful rival of the United States in the bipolar system, without a single bullet being fired, the expression of “Soft War” entered into new military and strategic jargon in the world. While the use of hard power or military forces is still a prevalent means in interstate clashes, the advent of the internet as a popular method of communications introduced a new dimension in the conflict environment.

Cyber war is a form of applied soft power in conflict situations where various vital strategic points and institutions of the target state are susceptible to cyber attacks. The range of such targets is very wide and diverse: from civilian power plants, banking system and defense establishments to media and cultural centers and academic institutions. Many states are now investing hard in the field of soft war as a legitimate investment with the objective to avoid the fate of the “evil empire.”

While conflict environment is being radically changed, means of encountering threats should also be transformed accordingly. However, there seem to be some misperceptions about non-violent and peaceful capacity of states to influence the course of international relations. This dimension has always been an important element of interstate interactions. In other words, use of soft power to complement other means of military power in peace and war has always formed an integral part of states’ grand strategy.

How far new schemes to cope with the threats of “soft war” is realistic? What are the risks of such strategy for society as a whole?

New Threats Perceptions

The post-elections turmoil in Iran has already lasted too long to be turned into an attrition domestic conflict. The hard-liners in Tehran are now announcing that they are facing a “soft war” initiated by the West for the purpose of toppling the Islamic regime. They argue that Western powers, disappointed from the threats of use force and hard power against Iran, and deterred from Iran’s defense and military capability, have been staging an unparalleled aggressive scheme through “soft power.” In their view, the plan is to instigate people against the government by claiming freedom, human rights, democracy and so on. They perceive that these latter demands are merely intended to press upon the Islamic system to surrender to western evil secular institutions and way of life.

The apprehension seems to be real and serious. Since, the forces of law and order are now being directed to cope with soft threats coming from the public media influenced by the West, including the satellites, internet and other means of communications. A parallel campaign has been initiated against academic institutions for teaching Western oriented secular social sciences. This whole has given a legitimate pretext to the ruling system to widen its rigorous control over the media and to press upon journalists, scholars, academics and opposition groups who one way or another have been criticizing the government during the past turbulent months.

Exaggerating Western Soft Power

There is no doubt about the technological capacity of the West and their capability to influence course of events anywhere in the world. But apparently, the threat of soft power is being immensely exaggerated in order to suppress domestic dissents which seeks its roots somewhere else

Ibne Khaldun, (1332-1406 AD) Moslem philosopher and scholar, pioneer in ‎sociology and historical analysis, was the first to argue that the defeat of the ‎Islamic domination in Western Mediterranean (Spain) was due to moral and ‎material decay of Moslem warriors and rulers. The main cause of this ‎phenomenon in his opinion was the clever plot designed by Westerners to corrupt ‎Moslem zealous through inducing lust for material amenities of life which detracted them ‎from their fervor and eagerness to defend the conquered realm of Islam.‎

In a way, the Khadunian suggestion seems to be still valid in any society where there is a cleavage between people and the ruling system because of mutual distrust. There are many factors through which people lose faith in their political system. Lack of accountability and proper democratic institutions, infringement to their principal rights, non-conformity to moral and ethical values, are among the most important factors leading to people mistrust and alienation. When people lose faith in the political system, they become discontent and thereby vulnerable and subject to all sorts of exogenous influence and intrigues.

Therefore, when people rise up against a political system and claim legitimate rights, one should not put all the blame on extraneous factors. Rational management of domestic crises requires that indigenous elements be taken seriously into consideration. In other words, we must first have an adequate grasp of our own society before initiating policies to counter with outside mischievous plots. People should be immunized against the influence of others’ soft power through appropriate cultural and educational preparation. Uses of repressive and restrictive measures usually have counterproductive effect. The problem needs to be tackled open-mindedly and rationally by specialists and not by unqualified forces that could jeopardize the whole scheme.

Dialogue and Diplomacy as Instruments of Soft Power

When states are engaged concurrently in two fronts (domestic and international) with disagreement, they should use both dialogue and diplomacy as instruments of soft power for crisis management. Exaggerating too much about “soft war” may further close the society and isolate the nation from the mainstream of international relations. At the same time, investing too heavily on hard power and military strength will not produce the necessary security assurance for a country.

The fall of the Soviet Union was not due to their lack of hard power, but rather to the disregard of the ruling elites of people’s essential rights and closure of the communist society to perceived “imperialistic plots.” Preparing for “soft war” requires a national consciousness of our strength, advantages and weakness and our standing in the global political configuration. Hard power and soft power are complementary components of national strategy in pursuit of vital interests. No matter how powerful a nation might be, it should show some degree of flexibility and tolerance in domestic and foreign affairs. The instruments of dialogue and diplomacy should be used as appropriate means to offset domestic unrest and to neutralize conceivable threats directed against our national interests. /

‎‎____________

‎ ‎* Ali Asghar Kazemi is professor of Law and International Relations in Tehran, Iran. See: ‎www.aakazemi.blogspot.com

‎* Students, researchers, academic institutions, media or any party interested in using all or parts of ‎this article are welcomed to do so with the condition of giving full attribution to the author and ‎Strategic Discourse ©All Copy Rights Reserved.‎

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